Pakistan to host the heads of government summit as the organization’s rotating chair, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in around three months. Pakistan has asked India to join the seven-member regional grouping. Even though it is too soon to predict, the signs thus far point to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s improbable participation. There is no indication from either party that they regard this as a chance for mutual reengagement.
The prospects for diplomatic relations between Pakistan and India are still pretty dire. It is immature to believe that the multilateral conference that Islamabad will hold in October would help to break the ice between Pakistan and India given the ongoing diplomatic impasse that neither country has made an effort to resolve.
The communication between the two nations following the elections in India has not been positive. Modi had a curt answer when Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif congratulated him on his reelection. In response, Modi pledged to ensure “the security and safety” of Indian residents, using terminology centered upon “security.” PML-N president Nawaz Sharif sent Modi a congratulations greeting that was tempered somewhat and focused mostly on security, but it was met with a similar scathing reply.
Modi’s oath-taking ceremony did not include Pakistan among the leaders of the region invited.
However, Modi’s charges against Pakistan last week provide the most glaring example of his position. “Pakistan has not learned anything from its history,” he declared in a speech on the eve of the Kargil conflict. Through terrorism and proxy warfare, it is attempting to maintain its relevance. He referred to Pakistan as “masters of terror.”
Previously, in his first remark after taking office, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar employed the same old, stale language. He clarified what future cooperation with Islamabad might entail by saying, “We would want to find an answer to the issue of years-old cross-border terrorism.”
It appears that maintaining a strategic freeze on relations with Pakistan is the Modi government’s policy. BJP leaders’ attacks on Pakistan throughout the election campaign were a reflection of their hostility against that country. Modi made some really controversial remarks himself. He said he would keep “hitting terrorists in their homes” and at one point contrasted his tough response to cross-border terrorism with the feeble strategy of his forebears. The Indian airstrikes he ordered on Balakot in February 2019 in response to a terrorist assault in Pulwama, in occupied Kashmir, were the subject of his mention.
A significant obstacle for Pakistan is India’s stubborn unwillingness to engage in dialogue on the Kashmir dispute. It would be unthinkable for Islamabad to hold a formal discussion without Kashmir, even if negotiations were to restart in the future. It is evident that a “peace” process that excludes Kashmir would collapse.
There is till obstacles in the way of restarting trade between the two nations. Both sides have a base that supports increasing bilateral commerce, but Delhi has not yet demonstrated any enthusiasm in fostering new business relations.
