By Dur-e-Shehwar
The considerable presence of US military troops in Middle East has been considered as a core part of US foreign policy since mid-20th century.
US acknowledged the geopolitical and strategic significance of Middle East after World War II and It was not only for its rich resources but to counter soviet expansionism through the policy of Containment.
To maintain global security and to deter terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq after September11 attacks, US expanded its influence in those states by launching operations.
As of October 2024, approximately 40,000 U.S. service members are stationed in the Middle East as these members spread across 19 military sites in countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
The US interests got redirected from merely using Middle Eastern states as a buffer against Soviet to dealing the issue of terrorism and regional security.
In 2024, there are reports about Biden Administration announcement of reduction of the military presence in Middle East specifically in Syria and Iraq as the Operation Inherent Resolve(OIR) that was against ISIS comes to an end.
The simmering conflicts and tensions in the Middle East and the rising Isolationism in American public both urged US to withdraw their forces from Middle East.
This move of US could further destabilize the regions and could have significant repercussions for Global security as it might be a cause of increasing tensions in that region.
US complete withdrawal or reduction of troops from Middle East can create a notable power vacuum in the region that can change the global power dynamics and there will be struggle of power among regional powers.
It can allow Iranian dominance to flourish in Iraq and Syria. There is also a kind of fear mongering that China and Russia might take the benefit from reduction of US involvement in Middle East filling up the power vacuum, hence gaining strategic advantage.
Without Us interference in the Middle East, there are significant chances to rise in proxy conflicts between Regional powers such as their will be intensification of rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia might ramp up its assistance to Anti-Iranian groups in Iraq and Syria while Iran may increase its support for militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
The greater possibility of these proxy wars can further inflame regional conflicts, thus contributing to global instability.
Another substantial impact on global security after Us withdrawal from Middle East might be the re-evaluation of partnerships and security strategies by Regional alliances such as Saudi Arabia and UAE.
These states may align with Russia and China for seeking assurance and stability. Saudi Arabia has enhanced her economic and military collaboration with China and China has become apparent in Middle East by supplying military equipment to Riyadh as a substitute to US conventional military aid.
Saudi Arabia has also begun talks with Chinese enterprises for various infrastructure projects including the ambitious Vision 2030 initiative.
While US withdrawal may coincide with growing public opinion that US must retreat from global affairs, it entails the threat of regional as well as global instability.
The high potential for proxy wars, increased conflicts, transition of partnerships and creation of power vacuum draw attention to far reaching implications of this strategic decision.
(The writer is doing BS in international relations from Punjab university Lahore . She is interested in foreign policy analysis and geopolitics.)
