American President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are battling to win the White House for the next four years. To win the Presidential race both are knocking the other down among voters. To win over the undecided voters in the six key states debates and campaigns are on the run. Biden of the Democrats and Trump of the Republicans are the potential nominees of their parties to run in this election.
Experts think Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will play a deciding role on the one hand, and on the other factors including abortion, immigration, foreign policy, and the economy will be the turning points in the 2024 Presidential election.
About 240 million people are eligible to vote in this year’s election. This contest is historic because the rematch is between the current president and his immediate predecessor. It is unique when the choice is just about one of them.
The Trump campaign is hoping to distract from the weaknesses of their candidate such as his legal troubles, divisive rhetoric, and his attempts to undermine the 2020 election results that led to an attack on the US Capitol. Biden also has key vulnerabilities. He sells his first-term achievements and is convincing the public against his challenger. He calls his predecessor out of control and a threat to democracy.
Biden’s approval among voters continues to suffer and public perceptions of Trump are also negative. All independent polls so far have indicated that November’s general election will be tight. They present, two candidates either standing neck and neck or Trump is excelling with a slight advantage.
The system that US provides to pick its president depends on candidates winning each state. Most states are solidly Democratic or Republican, but crucial states that could go either way are the said states. Both the Republicans and Democrats are selling their viewpoint to capture the votes of these states.
Arizona.
Biden won in 2020 with the support of this state with a narrow margin. This state borders Mexico for hundreds of miles. It is a focal point of the nation’s immigration debate. Arrivals at the US through this border have hit records during Biden’s administration. It is a major electoral headache for this administration.
Donald Trump attacked his rivals for making a record on immigration and vowed to carry out “the largest deportation operation.” The reports said the years 2018-2024 marked higher numbers of border crossings. Arizona also hosts debates over abortion access after Republicans attempted to reinstate a nearly total ban on terminating pregnancies. Georgia: In Georgia, Trump-backed officials tried to thwart Biden’s win in 2020. Here alleged election interference landed Trump in one of his four criminal cases. He denies any wrongdoing, and the case looks increasingly unlikely to be heard in court before the election. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s legal headaches will harm him at the ballot box or he escapes. At 33%, Georgia has one of the country’s highest proportions of African Americans in its population. It proved instrumental in Biden’s flipping this state in 2020. Now disappointment is being reported among those Americans with some saying not enough was done to combat racial injustice here.
Michigan: Despite backing Mr. Biden in 2020, much criticism here is found against him over his support for Israel against Gaza. During Michigan’s Democratic primary contest in February, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots, after a campaign was mounted by activists that demanded the US government back a ceasefire in Gaza and halt its military aid to Israel. Mr. Biden has unfolded a three-phase ceasefire plan last week and despite backing of the UN Security Council, it stands without implementation. He is pressuring Hamas but not asking Israel to take the first step. He is not hopeful that his unfolded plan will soon be implemented and all this is running against him.
Michigan contains the largest proportion of Arab Americans and the results of the polls show that Biden’s graph among them has fallen to just 20 percent. Trump highlighted the state’s significance in his potential path to victory. Commenting on events in the Middle East, he called on Israel to finish its campaign.
Nevada: This state voted for Democrats for the last several elections, but there are signs of a possible turnaround by the Republicans. Recent averages published by poll-tracking firm 538 indicate that Mr. Trump has been enjoying a healthy lead over Mr. Biden there. Both men are vying to win the state’s sizeable Latino population. The government’s statistics reveal this state has the highest unemployment rate after California and the District of Columbia. Trump promises to provide enough jobs here after he wins.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvanians are affected by inflation. The price of groceries has risen faster in this state than in the other. The BBC recently reported as many as one in eight people are considered “food insecure” here in this state. This state proved pivotal in the 2020 election, backing Biden in his successful White House bid.
Trump attacks high inflation. He has challenges in this state after a strong showing there by his Republican primary rival Nikki Haley. Wisconsin picked Biden in 2016 and 2020 with a thin margin of around 20,000 votes each time. Analysts say marginal states like these may prove beneficial to the independent. Polling has indicated a sizeable show of support for an independent – Robert F Kennedy Jr. Trump says “Really important… if we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing”. The Republican National Convention will also hold here Biden points to a new Microsoft data center in Wisconsin as evidence of his sincerity in delivering jobs. To the analysts, the American economy will prove among the deciding factors. The economy is said the deciding hymn even for Bill Clinton in 1992. In the existing situation what makes 2024 challenging to predict is that, on the whole, economic indicators are positive, analysts said.
However, home sales in the US have sunk to the lowest levels. It is seen as the point of politics for Trump. Biden administration driven up monthly home payments.
Trump suggests things can be better in his time. Abortion and immigration are among the deciding factors. The Biden campaign tried to convince voters that Trump was responsible for abortion becoming illegal. Democrats have been riding a groundswell of support on the issue to post better-than-expected results at the ballot box. Biden has pointed to state court decisions approving stringent new abortion restrictions in Florida and Arizona, along with upcoming voter referendums on the subject, to encourage liberal voters to head to the polls in November.
Democrats are elevating the abortion matter in the minds of voters while Trump does the same on immigration. Border crossings reached a high in December with 249,785 arrests on the Mexican border – up 31% from November and up to 13% from December 2022. This massive influx of undocumented migrants has at times overwhelmed government processing facilities and strained social service programs.
According to the reports, immigration is the top issue for much of Trump’s base and a source of weakness for Biden even within the Democrats. In the US, some think the Biden administration is so weak on safety and security at the southern border. The Gaza War is another headache for Biden owing to his support of Israel. This phenomenon has angered even some Democrats and a large number of voters.
Trump’s legal issues could also be an important factor in this race. He faces 91 charges under four criminal trials. According to an exit poll of voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary, 42% said Trump would not be fit for office if he were found guilty. Polls of voters in other Republican primaries also remained similar.
The January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by Mr. Trump’s supporters may haunt him in this election. The more Americans are reminded of this trauma, the more Trump may get in trouble.
