On Monday, the UK’s Labour Party emerged with what seems to be its greatest parliamentary majority in a century.
A YouGov poll indicates that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is expected to win 194 seats, which would be the largest election victory since Conservative politician Stanley Baldwin won 208 seats in 1924.
This prediction, the first from YouGov since the election was announced, indicates a significant change in the political climate in the United Kingdom.
Labour is predicted to get 422 seats, a notable rise of 222 from the 2019 results. This would be more seats gained by Labour than by Tony Blair in a landslide in 1997.
According to the survey, the Conservative Party is expected to suffer a significant setback and may lose as many as 140 seats, the fewest since its 1906 victory of 131 seats.
Approximately 53,000 interviews in England and Wales and 5,500 in Scotland were conducted for YouGov’s survey, which indicates that Labour would receive 42.9% of the vote, while the Conservatives would receive 24.5%.
Numerous prominent Conservative ministers might face difficulties in light of the anticipated Labour landslide. According to the survey, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, and the defense secretary, Grant Shapps, might all lose their positions.
Intriguingly, 2022 researcher and Emeritus Professor in the University of Essex’s Department of Governance Paul Whitely observed in an LSE blog that the Conservative vote share consistently looks more predictable than the Labour Party’s, implying that Labour support is more erratic than Conservative support.
