Maulana Fazlur Rehman has announced a protest movement against the government and existing system. He has challenged the legality of the government and rebuked the military establishment for its alleged role in Pakistan politics. Can Maulana bring about any change or his distress merely is a tactic to bargain some position? Analyzing the political situation, it looks like he will stay at his current position and not beyond that.
The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman is demanding the government resign and alleges the establishment counterfeited the electoral results of the general elections in 2024. He thinks that this time the assemblies were sold and in return, this government was put in place. He expresses a commitment to remain on roads challenging this system until it achieves its purpose. Why is he doing so? Will it be successful? This may be clear when looking into the past and existing situations.
Maulana in this election even lost his hometown constituency. His old allies – mainly PMLN, PPP, and MQM Pakistan – are again in the government. Mr. Asif Ali Zardari is the President of Pakistan, and Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif is again the prime minister. The Senate chairman, national and provincial assembly speakers, provincial chief ministers and governors, ministries including Kashmir Affairs, and PAC slots are all booked. It looks like nothing has been left behind for the JUIF chief to occupy.
The political representation of JUI-F in the national and provincial assemblies is 21 seats out of the total of 855. It has six seats in the National Assembly (NA), seven and 11 respectively in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. It stood out in the Punjab and Sindh. The PML-N, the PPP, and the MQM-P have 230, 163, and 45 seats respectively in the national and provincial houses. The JUI-F’s party position is quite weak in them all.
Maulana holds good support in religious seminaries, but his general public constituency is not that powerful. The students of religious seminaries can be a good support for organizing marches and processions. Their political impact, compared with the general public, is much less. With this particular constituency, one can exert pressure to a limited level and to the point that can help bring some major change.
Before this election, he was the head of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) which removed Imran Khan from power through a vote of no confidence. This was the first-ever successful motion that removed an elected prime minister. The PML-N, PPP, MQM-P, and JUI-F were PDM. Could JUI-F alone remove Khan? Even the PDM could not have done it if the military establishment had not supported it. Maulana himself is on record saying that the military establishment was with them in the April 2022’s vote of no confidence against Imran Khan.
He did not object to the then-military establishment and not even in the past this way. Why? It looks like for some space or accommodation as when the PDM was in this system, all was good. Maulana was interested in the presidency, but it could not happen either in the past or after the 2024 elections. He had been supporting Mr. Sharif despite there is a perception that he is liked by the military establishment. He remained an ally to the same PML-N when he was the chairman of the Kashmir Affairs Committee.
Analysts think that Maulana could secure some position for him despite this little representation in the parliament if had not gone to the peak. It seems like a political war for his survival. The JUI-F being a religious political party had never been in a mainstream system except dating back to KP and Baluchistan. When the PTI was holding KP’s government and the PML-N in the center, Maulana wished to replace the PTI’s government by seeking the support of Nawaz Sharif, but could not convince him of this.
Maulana joined hands with his worst political opponent – PTI– even though Ali Amin Gandapur defeated him in his hometown. He knows that with PTI’s support, he will have public support in his processions and protests. He knows this way he would be in a better position to make some bargain and PTI cannot have this fruit. On the one hand, he is against this system, but on the other wants to remain in assemblies.
Perhaps, Maulana can never be in alliance with the PTI for multiple reasons. The constituency of Maulana and the PTI are ideologically different. He knows there is no soft corner for the PTI in the power corridors. Why PTI will be willing to let Maulana have some political advantage while using the PTI’s pitch? Both the government and the military establishment are aware of what strength JUI-F has in the assemblies. In the given situation Maulana might not be able to bargain something extra. It is likely to go the same way it is going.
The situation for Maulana might have been different if he had not gone to the length, he went in his first speech in the national assembly. He also said, “If they deny any election rigging, they should acknowledge that the people had dismissed the May 9 narrative.” He deviated from what he demanded in the past. “Why not an immediate action taken against Imran Khan and his party regarding mega scandals? I ask the government if an action against the former three-time prime minister could be taken then why not against Imran? The PTI government had mercilessly crushed the national economy. It wasted 70 billion US Dollars in investment from China. The occupation of Kashmir is a result of the alliance between Khan and Narendra Modi, he said all this when PDM was placed in power. Maulana again has announced a power show – million-man march – by June 1. Earlier, he showed power in Karachi and Peshawar, but nothing happened. What this march proves is something that the people are waiting.
(Senior journalist Rana Kashif has authored this article)
