Japan: The Japanese government has issued a chilling forecast, warning of an unprecedented mega earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 8 to 9 that would strike the country in the next 30 years.
The likelihood of such a catastrophic event has risen to an alarming 82% according to the earthquake research committee.
Global news outlets report that the government-appointed panel of experts has highlighted the increasing probability of a passive earthquake in southwestern Japan, near the Pacific coastline.
Such a quake could generate a devastating tsunami, resulting in thousands of deaths and causing economic losses in the billions.
As of last year, experts estimated the chances of a mega earthquake at 74-81%. This figure has not increased to 75-82%, heightening concerns.
The potential epicenter of this catastrophic earthquake lies in the Nankai trough, a deep underwater role South of Japan’s main island, Honshu.
The Nankai trough spans 800 kilometers along the Pacific Ocean’s coastline and is one of the most seismically active areas in the world.
This region is where two tectonic plates converge, creating immense geological pressure. The plates occasionally become stuck, causing fast amounts of energy to accumulate over time.
When these plates finally release the stored energy, an earthquake of massive proportions. The Nankai Trust has a long history of producing significant seismic events.
Over the past 1400 years, major earthquakes have occurred in this region every 100 to 200 years, the most recent earthquake struck in 1946, nearly 79 years ago.
An official from the Earthquake Research Committee explained the mounting risk: “It has been 79 years since the last major earthquake in the Nankai Trough. With each passing year, the likelihood of another major seismic event increases by approximately one percent.”
The Nankai trough’s history is a stark reminder of the devastation it can cause. In 1707, the entire length of the Nanki Trough ruptured simultaneously, resulting in one of the most catastrophic earthquakes in Japanese history.
Known as the Hoei Earthquake, it caused widespread destruction, claiming thousands of lives and leaving an indelible mark on the nation.
