By Sanan Hassan Lashari
We examine India’s foreign policy with Russia under Modi 3.0 in this piece of writing. India’s economic might is primarily responsible for the remarkable performance of Modi’s foreign policy during the past few years. From being among the shaky five, India’s economy is now ranked fifth largest. With an 8.2 percent growth rate, India’s economy is the fastest expanding globally. India’s growing financial strength allows it to participate more actively and meaningfully in international affairs.
India’s ties with the United States, the West, Russia, and East Asian nations have grown remarkably over the past ten years. Despite intense pressure from the West to denounce Russia, India has maintained cordial ties with Russia despite the latter’s actions against Ukraine. The Modi administration kept importing Russian oil. Even though the West attempted to get India to break its ties with Russia, India chose to increase its imports; in May 2023, Reuters even reported that Indian oil imports had increased independently of Western worries. India rejected Western pressure, citing both its economic needs and its long-standing relations with Russia. Although Narendra Modi has just started his voyage in Russia, the two countries have a long and close history of friendly bilateral relations. This is Modi’s first trip to Russia following the unjustified invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Russia continues to be India’s top supplier of weaponry since the fall of the Soviet Union. When war broke out in Europe, not only did the energy order shift, but the weapons order was also disrupted since Russia’s capacity to sell munitions to other nations was jeopardized.
In my view, India’s future trajectory in relations with Russia could go in three different directions under Modi 3.0. First, by concentrating on energy and defense relations, BJ P will aim to fortify its strategic alliance with Russia; India will continue to be a vital market for Russian armaments. The second trajectory, which India pursued while maintaining its connections with Russia, can be described as a pragmatic balancing strategy that also aimed to draw in Western nations. India will also diversify its energy sources to lessen its reliance on Russia. To maintain a realistic balance, the BJP can move to other nations like the US, France, and Israel, even for defense cooperation. The third trajectory, which I believe is less plausible, is that India would reconsider its relations with Russia in response to pressure from the West and begin giving priority to its allies in the West over Russia.
Let’s talk about a few possible causes that can worsen India’s relations with Russia. China and Russia are becoming more coordinated, and Russia is supporting China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Tensions between the two countries will eventually arise if Russia continues to assist Chinese initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as India rejects these kinds of projects because they violate its sovereignty. The no-limit strategic partnership deal between Russia and China, which was inked just before the Ukrainian War, may have an impact on Russo-Indian relations in addition to global dynamics.
As I’ve already indicated, 60–70% of India’s defense supplies come from Russia, making this dependency crucial, especially in light of the country’s ongoing border conflicts with China. As a result, India is quite concerned about the growing alliance between Russia and China. Second, even a few days ago, the leaders of Russia and Pakistan met at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s sideline conference, which is another cause for concern for India given the strengthening connections between Russia and Pakistan. This may be the second annoyance, but India has handled its relations with Russia and the West successfully since gaining independence by maintaining a policy of balance.
