UNITED NATIONS: The world faces a prolonged period of weak economic growth that will undermine progress on sustainable development, the UN warned Thursday, as it urged countries to raise investment to tackle the climate emergency.
Its annual assessment of the state of the global economy presents a sombre outlook for growth as countries grapple with the impact of higher borrowing costs, geopolitical tensions and heightened risk of climate disasters.
Global growth will slow to 2.4% this year from 2.7% in 2023 – significantly below the pre-COVID pandemic trend of 3% – amid “strong headwinds” facing the planet, the World Economic Situation and Prospects report forecasts. In South Asia, the study said, growth in several economies in the region will face downward pressures from tighter financial and fiscal conditions, balance-of-payments challenges, and the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon.
The flagship forecast launched in New York on Thursday indicates that last year’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic masked short-term risks and structural vulnerabilities in the world economy.
The sombre short-term outlook is based on persistently high-interest rates, further escalation of conflicts, sluggish international trade, and increasing climate disasters, which all pose significant challenges to global growth.
It points to a prolonged period of tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs, presenting strong headwinds for a world economy saddled with debt and in need of more investments to resuscitate growth, fight climate change and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
“2024 must be the year when we break out of this quagmire. By unlocking big, bold investments we can drive sustainable development and climate action and put the global economy on a stronger growth path for all,” said UN chief António Guterres.
“We must build on the progress made in the past year towards an SDG Stimulus of at least $500 billion per year in affordable long-term financing for investments in sustainable development and climate action.” So how do the numbers break down? We’ll begin our analysis with the scourge of rising prices that continues to bedevil economies large and small: Global inflation is projected to decline further, from an estimated 5.7 per cent in 2023 to 3.9 per cent in 2024.
But price pressures are still elevated in many countries and any further escalation of geopolitical conflict will add to that. In about a quarter of all developing countries, annual inflation is projected to exceed 10 per cent in 2024, the report highlights. Since January 2021, consumer prices in developing economies have increased by a cumulative 21.1 per cent, significantly eroding the economic gains made following the COVID-19 recovery. “Persistently high inflation has further set back progress in poverty eradication, with especially severe impacts in the least developed countries,” said Li Junhua, Head of the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
“We must strengthen global cooperation and the multilateral trading system, reform development finance, address debt challenges The United States, the world’s largest economy, is expected to see a drop in GDP growth from 2.5 per cent in 2023 to 1.4 per cent in 2024.
Consumer spending, a key driver of its economy, is likely to weaken due to various factors, including high interest rates and a softening labour market the report says.
Meanwhile, China, facing domestic and international headwinds, is projected to experience a moderate slowdown with growth estimated at 4.7 per cent in 2024, down from 5.3 last year.
Europe and Japan also face challenges with growth rates forecasted at 1.2 per cent for both regions in 2024. Africa’s growth rate is projected to slightly increase from 3.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.5 in 2024.
The report notes that the least developed countries (LDCs) are projected to grow by 5 per cent in 2024, yet this falls short of the 7 per cent growth target under the SDGs. The global labour market presents a mixed post-pandemic picture. Developed countries experienced a robust recovery with low unemployment rates, notably 3.7 per cent in the US and 6 per cent in the EU in 2023, coupled with rising nominal wages and narrowing wage inequality. However, real income losses and labour shortages pose challenges.
Developing countries show mixed progress; while nations like China, Brazil, Türkiye, and Russia report declining unemployment, gender gaps, and high youth unemployment persist. Globally, the decline in women’s labour force participation to 47.2 per cent in 2023 (compared to 48.1 in 2013) and the high NEET rate (not in employment, education or training) of 23.5 per cent among youth highlight enduring challenges.
There is a noted slowdown in investment growth across both developed and developing economies. While developed countries have continued to channel investments into sustainable and technology-driven sectors like green energy and digital infrastructure, developing countries face challenges such as capital flight and reduced foreign direct investment.
Global investment growth is expected to remain low due to economic uncertainties, high debt burdens, and rising interest rates. Investment in the energy sector, especially in clean energy, is growing but not at a pace sufficient to meet the net-zero-emissions goal by 2050.
International trade is losing steam as a growth driver, with global trade growth weakening to 0.6 per cent in 2023, and recovering to 2.4 per cent in 2024. The report points to a shift in consumer spending from goods to services, rising geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and the lingering effects of the pandemic as factors impeding trade growth.
Furthermore, the shift towards protectionist policies in some countries has also influenced trade dynamics, leading to a reevaluation of global supply chains and trade agreements. Developing countries, such as Pakistan, face high levels of external debt and rising interest rates, making access to international capital markets difficult. There’s a decline in official development assistance and foreign direct investment for low-income countries.
Debt sustainability has emerged as a critical challenge, especially for developing countries, in the wake of rising debt levels and changing global financial conditions. The increase in global interest rates, a consequence of monetary policy tightening by central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, has escalated debt servicing costs, particularly for countries with foreign currency-denominated debts.
As a result, many countries are grappling with the need for debt restructuring. 2023 saw extreme weather conditions worsen, including the hottest summer on record since 1880 leading to devastating wildfires, floods, and droughts worldwide. These events have direct economic impacts, such as damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and livelihoods. Studies have predicted substantial losses to the global economy due to climate change.
