Donald Trump second term

As Donald Trump takes the oath of office as the 47th President of the United States today, experts and analysts are weighing in on what his second term could mean for America’s foreign policy and global relations.

In an exclusive interview published by the Foreign Policy Center, Anthony Silberfeld from the Bertelsmann Foundation and Dr. Andrew Gawthorpe of Leiden University provided insights into the likely trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy approach.

A Move Away from the ‘Global Watchdog’

According to Silberfeld, Trump’s presidency will concentrate on domestic affairs and not on international relations.

His administration is likely to focus on “internal” threats, including undocumented immigration, and is likely to engage in mass deportations, which would have economic, reputational, and humanitarian costs.

At the global level, Trump’s strategy appears to be based on revenge against countries that are perceived to have “treated the U.S. unfairly.” Countries such as China and Germany, which hold trade surpluses with the U.S., are likely to face tariffs and economic penalties.

However, such policies may carry significant long-term consequences, such as inflation for American consumers and diminished credibility for the U.S. as a stabilizing force in world affairs.

Dr. Gawthorpe ssuggested that Trump’s second term will emphasize bilateral negotiations over multilateral agreements.

The President’s preference for leveraging American power against individual countries signals a departure from the cooperative, treaty-based approaches of previous administrations.

This could create strain in relationships with traditional allies, especially in Europe, where tension may arise through Trump’s request for increased defense spending from its members.

According to Silberfeld, it is possible that Trump may restrict his mutual defense agreements to those who meet his expenditure requirements, cutting off countries like the UK that have not yet done so.

Friction in Europe and the UK

The Donald Trump administration’s position on NATO and its proposal for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war are also areas of concern. While promising to end the conflict within 24 hours during the campaign, Silberfeld reports that Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, has now revised this timeline, indicating that a ceasefire may take up to 100 days.

The success of these efforts and the degree to which European allies are consulted will determine the larger transatlantic relationship.

For the UK, Trump’s policies could test the “special relationship.” Gawthorpe emphasizes that the UK’s ability to navigate these challenges will depend on closer cooperation with the European Union, especially as Trump’s administration appears less committed to transatlantic security.

Elon Musk: An Unofficial Power Broker?

One of the most controversial figures in Trump’s inner circle is Elon Musk, who played a significant role in the Trump-Vance campaign. Silberfeld and Gawthorpe note how Musk has the potential to sway foreign policy, especially through his platform, X (formerly Twitter).

While Musk’s advisory role is unofficial, his business interests and connections—particularly his connections to China—may conflict with critical parts of Trump’s political coalition. Yet Musk’s use of X to amplify right-wing movements across Europe could be a new form of foreign intervention in global politics, targeting mainstream parties while supporting extremist factions.

As Trump’s second term starts, the United States seems set for a radical rebalancing of its foreign policy. Given the administration’s focus on economic interests and preference for bilateralism, the approach might redefine America’s relationships with allies and adversaries alike. Whether this will bring stability or further global tensions remains to be seen.