With new powers appearing on the global map, the globe has recently witnessed a shift in the balance of power. A number of causes are contributing to the downfall of the liberal, rule-based world order. Following two devastating wars, the West established the democratic liberal system. With the fall of the USSR, there was only one superpower in the world. Up to the year 2000, the unipolar movement persisted. Following this, a few powers surfaced that cast doubt on the unipolar globe. The emergence of emerging economies in the East necessitated a change in trade regulations. There are several elements leading to the current state of chaos in the international order. The fundamental idea of world order, its types, its evolution over time, and the causes of the current Poly crisis that is undermining liberal democratic values will all be covered in this article.
What is world order?
The term “world order” describes the organized framework of international interactions and the allocation of power among countries worldwide. It is a general phrase that includes a range of power dynamics patterns, including, hegemonic, and egalitarian systems.
World order based on equality [ Egalitarianism]
The distribution of power across states is comparatively equal in an egalitarian world order. The international scene is not dominated by one nation or a limited number of nations. Rather, several countries share power and decision-making duties. This kind of idealistic world order aspires to a more harmonious and cooperative international community.
Hegemonic global Order.
In contrast to the egalitarian model, a hegemonic world order is ruled by one strong country, known as the “hegemon.” This country has a big say in international politics, economy, and security. The United States has long been regarded as a hegemon, particularly in the years following World War II. However, rising nations have the potential to challenge this supremacy, which could result in changes to the global order.
Kaplan’s international systems models
Renowned political scientist Morton Kaplan created a number of models to describe the various kinds of international systems that have existed over time. Among these models are:
System of balance of power:
This model divides power among several big states in a fairly equal manner. Because no state can rule over the others, there is a balance that keeps disputes at bay and fosters stability. The 19th-century European state structure is frequently used as an illustration.
Bipolar system:
Two major superpowers that have an impact on the world stage are featured in the bi-polar system paradigm. A prime example of a bi-polar system is the Cold War era, when the US and the USSR were the two superpowers
Multi-polar system:
Several major powers live and work together in a multi-polar system. Complex alliances and rivalries may result from this arrangement. One example of a multi-polar system is the European system prior to World War I.
Hierarchy of Power;
With one dominant nation at the top and other nations positioned in descending order of influence, is what distinguishes the hierarchical system paradigm. Hierarchical systems are exemplified by imperial systems, such as the British Empire.
Factors contributing to the Shift in Global dynamics
Economic power
The world order is significantly shaped by economic power. Strong economies have the power to affect international financial, investment, and trade systems. An excellent illustration of how economic might may shift the balance of power in the world is the emergence of China as a major economic force.
China’s growing economic power is reflected in the Belt and Road Initiative and its expanding presence in global organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Beside of this new economic institution has been introduced by China for instance BRICS.
The member of BRICS countries is demanding change in the global economic rules. some of the BRICS countries are even signing currency swap agreements with each other and expediting the process of de dollarization. If we talk about China, according to IMF report, it has overtaken US in purchasing power parity in 2016 and still it is far ahead by US.
The US growth rate in 2024 was only 3.1%, while China‘s GDP was growing around 5%.
Moreover, China produced 12.6 times as much steel, 22 times as much cement, and twice as much power in 2024 as the US. The United States produced very little, while China’s shipyards produced more than half of the world’s total.
China produced 30.2 million cars in 2023, over three times as many as the US produced (10.6 million). In terms of demand, China sold 26 million cars last year, which is 68% greater than the US’s 15.5 million sales. Three times as many cellphones were purchased by Chinese customers (434 million) as by US consumers (144 million). China as a nation eats eight times as much seafood and twice as much meat as the United States.
Furthermore, inflation in US was 9 percent in 2022. Even during the election economy remain the important issue. Exit polls shows almost 33 percent voters considers economy an important issue. But in reality, inflation again increased to 3 percent since Trump has taken over the office. on the other hand, The Trump administration has announced 10% trade tariffs on a variety of consumer imports from China and 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. The United States has indicated its determination to impose tariffs on imports from the European Union, even though proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have been temporarily put on hold.
From the above discussion it is confirmed that US economy is struggling. Similarly, China also dealing with economic slowdown due to covid shutdown and real estate crisis.
Military Capability
The world order is still largely shaped by military might. Advanced military capabilities enable nations to project power and defend their interests around the world. With its vast network of alliances and military installations, the United States has continued to hold a leading role in international security.
However, the security environment in areas like the Indo-Pacific is changing due to the rise of new military powers like India.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Analysis estimated that China’s military spending has increased by about 900 percent since 1992. China spent almost $300 billion on its military in 2022, far more than Russia did. That being said, Chinese military spending is still less than that of the United States.
American military spending in 2022 was $877 billion, whereas China’s military spending in the same year was $292 billion. This demonstrates that US military spending is three times that of China. The United States spends 3.5% of its GDP on military spending, whereas China spends 1.6%.
Diplomatic strategies
For countries to successfully negotiate the complexity of international relations, diplomacy is an essential tool. Countries can increase their influence, forge alliances, and settle disputes with the use of successful diplomatic tactics. In today’s world China is leading the successful diplomatic initiatives in comparison to US.
Few Years ago, the major breakthrough between two archrivals of Middle east occurred and the role of mediator was played by China. In a similar manner the economic diplomacy of China is getting successful in all over the world.
Historical evolution of World order
From the balance of power to Bipolarity Europe was split into two opposing blocs as a result of the new military-political alliances that developed there. This ultimately resulted in the First World War, which altered the political climate and power dynamics on a worldwide scale. Subsequently, the League of Nations, the first international organization, was founded with the aim of influencing the development of new international relations principles. In addition, the system of international conventions kept evolving. However, the new stable world order had only been in place for a brief time following World War II.
The significant transformations, such as the rise of the USSR, the creation of new weaponry, and the enormous. The great Depression, Germany’s unwillingness to accept the restrictions, and other reasons worsened relations and sparked a new conflict. The post-World War II order was very different from the one that had been in place before. First, the world became bipolar with two military blocs (NATO and the Warsaw Treaty Organization) since there were only two powerful nations (the USA and the USSR). Deterrence tactics and nuclear equations formed the military basis of this equilibrium.
Second, it had ideo-logical underpinnings that the preceding global order did not. The post-war world order may have lasted for a considerable amount of time due to ideological bias.
In general, a stable global order that was acknowledged and upheld by the major players lasted for three to four decades, or even fewer. Therefore, the pre-French Revolution (1789) system had been in place for fewer than 30 years. It was founded following the Seven Years’ War, or after 1763, and was demolished between 1790 and 1791.
The upheavals of 1848–1849 and the Crimean War toppled the Order, which had been in place for less than 35 years, following the Napoleonic wars and the Congress of Vienna. After the German Empire came into power in 1871, the next system of international order started to take shape, but it wasn’t until the early 1890s that it was fully created, and the First international War destroyed it.
Then there was the period of turmoil, which was ended in 1945, and the period of ideological war again divided the world into three parts the one with the western values the other one with the communist values and the third one in which nonaligned countries were included.
Decline Of US world Order
Dalio has noted a number of indicators in his works that indicate empires are in decline, and if the US is analyzed using this framework, it eventually uncovers unsettling patterns such Indicators for the decline of USA
Rising Debt and economic weakness
`According to Dalio, empires usually take on debt to sustain their policies and way of life, which leads to unstable finances. In fiscal year 2024, the average GDP was $28.82 trillion, while the US debt was $35.46 trillion. As a result, the debt-to-GDP ratio was 123 percent. Long-term economic stability is threatened by current borrowing and deficits. Additionally, rising income inequality has eroded public trust in institutions, increased class conflict, and damaged social cohesion.
Furthermore, there have been significant challenges to the dollar’s hegemony. The US dollar is losing momentum to rivals like cryptocurrencies and the Chinese yuan, even though it is the world’s reserve currency. A decline in dollar confidence could result in financial distaste.
Internal division
Dalio emphasizes how crucial social cohesiveness is to maintain an empire’s stability. Furthermore, political polarization in the US is at an all-time high, and partisanship is impeding governance. Social movements on both political extremes highlight profound cultural disparities on issues such as immigration, economic policy, and race.
Diminishing Global influence
Economic competitiveness has been steadily growing. The second-biggest economy in the world, China, has developed into a dangerous foe that challenges American hegemony in technology, trade, and geopolitics. One example of China’s desire to alter international economic structures is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Aside from that, the United States finds it difficult to effectively project influence despite increasing its military spending, as demonstrated by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Additionally, competitor nations Russia and China are stepping up their efforts within their respective spheres of influence. Last but not least, America’s reputation has suffered due to human rights abuses, internal turmoil, and conflicting foreign policy. American leadership has lost the trust of allies, which has had a significant effect on the US’s reputation abroad.
Challenges to Western Dominance from a Cultural and Ideological Perspective
The challenges to Western hegemony have also intensified in terms of culture and ideology. Western principles, especially capitalism, liberal democracy, and human rights, have encountered growing opposition from authoritarian governments and the one-party systems of China and Russia, which provide substitute forms of government. Beijing has hailed China’s state-capitalist system as a potential viable alternative to Western liberalism because it combines rapid economic growth with stringent political control over the media. Similarly, the Western emphasis on promoting democracy and human rights is challenged by Russia’s promotion of conservative values and its emphasis on territorial sovereignty and non-interference.
China’s Ascent in the World Economy
The perceived shortcomings of post-war Keynesian policies gave rise to neoliberalism, a new framework for modern capitalism, in the US and the UK in the late 1970s. Neoliberalism gave capitalists more power over production and international finance while decreasing the role of the state in allocating resources, especially between investment and consumption. With little government supervision, multinational financial firms have steadily strengthened this control.
China’s growth has radically changed world politics during the last thirty years. China’s economy gradually opened up to trade and investment as a result of economic reforms started in 1987, and in December 2001, the country joined the World Trade Organization. China has since evolved from a center of low-cost manufacturing to a world leader in cutting-edge technologies. Global supply chains and international diplomacy have changed as a result of this change, making China a vital trading and development partner for developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
China started exposing its economy to market forces in 1978, which sparked an unanticipated period of prosperity. China’s GDP grew 14.2 times between 1990 and 2022 (in constant US dollars). According to IMF estimates, China’s GDP (in constant 2017 US dollars) would surpass the US’s by 18% by 2022. Furthermore, by 2022, China’s GDP per capita had increased from 3.8% of the US level in 1990 to around 28%. China has challenged the US and the EU in these sectors with its notable advances in high technology, skill development, innovation, and high-quality education during this time.
China now accounts for one-sixth of the world’s GDP and 20% of the world’s population. In contrast, the United States produces one-fifth of the world’s total output despite having only 6% of the world’s population. China now accounts for 19% of global output in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, compared to 16% for the US and 15% for the EU. This represents a significant shift towards Asia in just one generation. China had a meager 5% of the world economy thirty years ago, compared to 20% for the US and EU. IMF, 2024.
Rise of new institutions
For over ten years, the BRICS nations have worked to lessen the importance of the US dollar in global trade, mostly by encouraging the use of their own currencies, particularly China’s renminbi. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, is a leading supporter of the effort to create a new currency for the BRICS. Using a combined basket of BRICS currencies or creating a new cryptocurrency were two further monetary proposals presented at the 2023 summit.
However, skeptics claim that those goals are unattainable. Over 80 percent of international trade still uses the dollar, which has long been the primary reserve currency of the globe.
from above factors one can conclude that world order is in transition. As the new institutions and emerging powers are posing threat to US global based order. Although the current world is dealing with the multipronged crisis, but these crises will exacerbate over the period of time
