By Muhammad Shehzad Khan
Although the USA’s policy to contain China started back in 2007 when the QUAD alliance was formed but it took a decade and was openly articulated in US’s strategy under Donald trump in his first term, since then USA has continued its containment strategy. In 2016, Donald trump got elected as the president of United States for the first term. Donald Trump has always been a hardliner and remained Vocal for the policy of containment against China. Thus, Donald Trump first term was marked by sweeping trade war with China and till the day trade war policies are in practice. Under him United States saw a clear policy shift from the decades of Engagement to Containment. In 2017, the national security policy of United States declared China as the clear threat. Bilateral US trade deficit in goods raised to 275 billion dollars. Trump announced high Tariffs on Chinese goods and placed restrictions on high technologies to eliminate this deficit and promote domestic manufacturing. Trump also revived the QUAD, an alliance originally founded back in 2007 with USA, India, Australia and Japan being members. It was meant to link two seas for free navigation in Indo-Pacific and this move was principally made in a bigger picture to threaten China. QUAD members also started doing Malabar naval exercises in the Indo pacific. After becoming President he also engaged with Taiwanese and made direct contacts with Taiwanese president Tsai-Ingwen, first of its kind since 1979 between top leaders of two countries and during his 1st term the amount of arms contract exceeded 18$billion with Taiwan . As the world was moving towards Multipolarity with three great power United States, China and Russia it was very pertinent for USA to seriously pursue the policy of deterrence against China. President Trump goal was to put pressure on China to change unfair trade policies. He put tariffs on Chinese goods in a bid to downsize China’s growing economy. In year 2018 alone, USA put Tariffs on Chinese goods worth 250billion Dollars in an effort to decouple the USA’s economy from China’s economy. While China also responded with tariffs hikes and this trade war continued at both ends his first term ended with administration reaching on phase one Trade deal with China.
In 2021, Biden took over as the president of USA. While Trump was an isolationist Biden’s strategy was more of coalition driven strategy. It was expected that Biden administration will undo trump’s policies instead the democratic leader has put on more pressure on Beijing. He kept in place most of the Tariffs on Chinese goods. Biden was determined to slow down Chinese economic growth thus he put on restrictions on Sophisticated and Cutting-edge Technologies to be exported to China. He announced a chip embargo to prevent semiconductors from being sold to China. QUAD in 2022 pledged to spend more than 50 billion US dollars in Indo-Pacific in next five years. As these countries are positioned to the east, west and south of First Island chain USA started improving the military readiness of the QAUD members to threaten Chinese shipping. It was an important move to force China to change its behavior. In 2024, Biden administration in a try to cap China’s access to semi-conductors expanded its export ban on China. President Biden raised the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and increased the tariff on solar cells and semiconductors to 50%. The tax rates on lithium-ion batteries increased to 25%. He also urged Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to implement restrictions. Overall, his term was marked by tougher times for China. United States position in Asia remained much stronger under Biden. He tightened the grip in Indo Pacific through different coalitions like QUAD and AUKUS . American’s Influence in Philippines has also increased and is in better position in South China Sea.
Now moving forward as Trump is resuming the presidential office in few days after winning the November elections three things can be anticipated; increased military cooperation with Taiwan, revival of trade war and strengthening the QUAD. Taiwan is the key for USA in containing China in Indo-Pacific. While China is eying on peaceful annexation of Taiwan, given the impact it can have in American decline as a regional Hegemon, it is highly unlikely USA will let it happen. So increased military cooperation with Taiwan is one thing coming in future. Though USA officially recognizes One-China policy and Trump in his statements has reiterated his isolationist stance, it is still not likely USA will loose its grip on Taiwan under Trump. We know that during his 1st term the amount of arms contract exceeded 18$billion with Taiwan. In fact, given his unpredictability he might increase cooperation with Taiwan to next level in order to contain China. Similarly trade war 2.0 is highly anticipated as Trump sees China as a parasite on the American free economy, he will surely engage China with more restrictions. Trump has promised 60 % tariffs increase on Chinese goods during his election campaigns. The chip embargo and restrictions relating to sophisticated technology exports is also a most likely scenario. For Trump the first and foremost is the preservation of its economic and technological superiority thus he will pursue the policy of decoupling and disconnection from the Chinese economy to promote domestic manufacturer. In Indo-Pacific Trump will be inclined to shift the containment policy from multilateral to unilateral agenda. While Biden did it through bloc architecture, this pattern will decrease under trump. However, QUAD will be instrumental in his strategy to contain China. As it was Trump who revived the QUAD in 2017, it is highly possible that he will increase the strength of QUAD and cooperation with QUAD members given the role it can play to oust China from global supply chain. The relationship with India will be very significant in this regard. It is very likely that Trump will use the terms of reciprocity and by supporting Indian naval modernization in Indo-pacific he will ask to confront China more aggressively. Trump can also enhance economic cooperation with India to counterbalance China’s influence in Asia. Moreover, trump will push, regional allies Japan and south Korea to spend more on defense in order to counter China in the region.
About Author
Muhammad Shehzad khan is a student of International relations from University of Punjab. His areas of interest are American foreign policy , Nuclear politics , International security. Moreover,he also works as content writet at theOpinion. He can be reached at shehzaday484@gmail.com
