A Reuters/Ipsos survey revealed that vice president Kamala Harris gained a little two percentage points advantage over Republican Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s decision to stop his reelection campaign and hand the reins to her.
This is in contrast to the little two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in the survey conducted last week, which before his withdrawal from the race on Sunday.
The latest survey, which was done on Monday and Tuesday, came after the Republican National Convention, when Trump formally accepted the nomination on Thursday, and after Joe Biden declared on Sunday that he was withdrawing from the race and supporting Harris.
The nationwide survey showed Harris leading Trump 44 percent to 42 percent; the gap was within the three percentage point margin of error. Harris’ team claims she has clinched the Democratic nominee.
In a survey conducted on July 15–16, Harris and Trump were even at 44%, but in a poll conducted on July 1–2, Trump had a one-point lead, both within the same margin of error.
Although national polls provide significant indications of the support that Americans have for political candidates, the US Electoral College, which finally determines the winner of a presidential election, is usually skewed toward a few contested states.
Any polling that indicated Harris’s support was downplayed by a pollster working for Trump’s team, who said that Harris was probably going to see a brief spike in popularity because to the extensive media attention of her new candidacy.
According to pollster Tony Fabrizio, “that bump is likely to start revealing itself over the next couple of days and will last for a while” was said in a letter that Trump’s team sent the media.
After formally accepting their party’s nomination, candidates frequently anticipate a boost at stage-managed, televised conventions like the one Trump attended last week. However, the survey did not indicate that.
Whether a bump or not, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos survey highlighted the reasons Biden withdrew from the campaign and Harris was added to the ticket in his place.
A statement describing Harris,59, as “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges” was accepted by about 56% of registered voters, compared to 49% who thought the same about Trump, 78.
The 81-year-old Biden gave up on running for reelection following a debate in which he frequently stumbled and did not vigorously refute Trump’s accusations, which included fabrications.
Approximately 80% of Democratic voters indicated they had a positive opinion of Biden, compared to 91% who felt the same way about Harris. Just 25% of Democratic voters thought more than one candidate should run for the party’s nomination, while 75% of them agreed with the assertion that the party and voters should support Harris right once.
Following the presentation of a hypothetical ballot including independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris outperformed Trump 42 percent to 38 percent, a difference that was not within the margin of error. Eight percent of voters supported Kennedy in the survey, but he hasn’t been qualified to appear on ballots in many states until the election on November 5.
Tuesday was Harris’s campaign stop in Wisconsin, a crucial battleground state. After she gained the endorsement of prominent party members, speculation has focused on her choice of running mate.
In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, a large number of respondents claimed to know nothing about the Democrats who were being considered for Harris’ ticket.
Out of all the possible running mates for Harris, US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received the greatest favorability rating (37%) among registered voters, with almost one in four claiming they had never heard of the former Democratic presidential contender.
About the same percentage of people said they thought highly of California Governor Gavin Newsom, but one in three had never heard of him. Two thirds of registered voters in the survey were unaware of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and half of them had never heard of Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona.
Total of 1,241 US individuals countrywide were polled for the online poll, which included 1,018 registered voters.
