The Israel-Gaza has resulted in a decrease in President Joe Biden’s vote bank, He hopes for his re-election in the upcoming US general elections in November. He is losing voters in such key states of the country where he kept the former President and the 2024 election challenger Donald Trump out of the White House.
The Arab American voters are not satisfied with Biden’s policy to aid Israel in the Gaza massacre. Biden got nearly 60 percent of the Arab American vote in the previous presidential election which helped him defeat his Republican predecessor – Trump. This vote bank has now reduced to less than 20 percent. The Arab American Institute (AAI) poll revealed this yesterday. This is important to note that President Biden’s support for Israel also led to several protests in several key states of the US such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Biden again requires to retain them including Georgia to win in November.
Trump’s success is also said to be linked with them to defeat Biden who won all six hit states in 2020 elections. Independent pools predict a tight race here between Biden and his predecessor. The Cook Political Report 2024 rated them as “toss-ups” for this election where Democrats last won with a thin margin.
Results from various recently conducted pools predict that both these potential presidential candidates are standing neck and neck. Trump is now said to have an edge over a large number of irregular voters along with the votes of religious minorities in the coming election. The New York Times/Siena Poll showed Biden lagging behind Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Earlier, a YouGov poll conducted by Americans for Justice in Palestine Action found that one in five Democratic and independent voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin said they were less likely to vote for Biden.
President AAI, James Zogby was reported saying “Arab Americans are still boiling over the pain of Gaza and they’re not willing to put that away.” The AAI estimates about 3.7 million Arab Americans live in the country. It is being said as a key voting bloc in several states that would help decide the 2024 winner in the US.
Those surveyed live in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These are all key states. According to the polls, 40 percent said they were “not enthusiastic at all” about the election. An even higher percentage of Arab American voters aged 18 to 34 said the same at 47 percent, while 50 percent of Democratic Party voters also said they were “not enthusiastic at all.” Zogby said it should be particularly worrying for Biden, whose Party historically enjoyed the support of young people, progressives, black voters, and other communities. “I’ve seen voters stay home more often than not when they don’t feel inspired.” This poll reveals that war in Gaza is the top issue for Arab Americans. About 60 percent say it is their top concern, and 57 percent said Gaza is “very important” in determining their vote in November. The AAI calculated that Biden could lose 177,000 Arab American votes just in the four states where the poll was conducted. That includes a drop of 91,000 votes in Michigan, where Biden won with a big lead
This poll serves as a caution to Biden, the AAI president said. About 80 percent of Arab American Democrats said they would vote for Biden in November if he demanded an urgent ceasefire and access to aid to Gaza, the poll results said. Importantly Rights groups in the US have also renewed their calls for Biden to halt weapons transfers to Israel after the ICJ has ordered Israel to urgently halt its offensive in Rafah.
Yesterday, Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), was reported as saying that the ICJ’s order left no ambiguity about what should be followed. “Continued US arms transfers to Israel would constitute deliberate defiance of the Court’s orders and make our government complicit in genocide,” she said. The director of Israel-Palestine research at DAWN, Michael Schaeffer Omer-Man was also reported saying that the ICJ’s ruling should push the US to “support any UNSC actions to enforce the Court’s order”, or risk appearing “again before the entire world as the guarantor of Israeli impunity.”
According to the media reports yesterday Nihad Awad, national executive director of the Council on American Islamic Relations, urged Biden to honor the ICJ’s ruling “by immediately ending all military assistance to Israel’s genocide.” “Israel is attempting to make Gaza uninhabitable. It must be stopped,” he said.
Rashida Tlaib, a member of Biden’s Democratic Party and a US Congresswoman, wrote on X yesterday “The whole world is taking action to stop the genocide of Palestinians, including the International Court of Justice.”
Worth mentioning here is that so far more than 36000 Gazans have been killed, nearly 82000 injured, 1.1 million are displaced, one million face acute hunger, and 56 percent among the killed are women and children, reasonable grounds of genocide available, International Court of Justice ordered to immediately halt operations in Rafah and barred Israel from committing genocide in Gaza, UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza, around 140 nations of the world recognized Palestinian statehood, schools, hospitals, shelter camps, and aid agencies are attacked in this war.
On the other hand, despite growing anger and warnings, President Biden’s policy on Israel is staying unchanged. The White House recently said, “There are no indications yet that would prompt Biden to withhold aid or weapons to Israel as Israel has not yet crossed that red line.” Steve Scalise, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives was reported to have written on his social media account “The ICJ is blinded by anti-Israel bias.” “Biden must not commit to vetoing any UNSC resolution that would enforce this outrageous decision.” He spoke. A US Senator, Lindsey Graham, was reported writing on X “ICJ can go to hell.” “It is long past time to stand up to these so-called international justice organizations. Their anti-Israel bias is overwhelming,” “This will and should be ignored by Israel.” Graham also urged the Biden administration to impose sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC) after the court’s top prosecutor this week requested arrest warrants for senior Israeli leaders.
Biden called the prosecutor’s move “outrageous.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that the administration would be willing to work with members of Congress on legislation to penalize the international tribunal. How much more Biden will lose is not yet known, but looks linked with the Israel-Gaza war that is continuing in all parts of Palestine and takes dozens of human lives every day including women and children.
(Senior journalist Rana Kashif has written this article)
